- Susan A. Banducci, Jeffrey A. Karp, and Peter H. Loedel. 2009. "Economic Interests and Public Support for the Euro" in Journal of European Public Policy. Volume 16, No. 4. 564-581.
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Although economic theories have been advanced to explain public support for the common currency, we know very little about how public support for the euro has been affected by its economic impact. We hypothesize that concern about rising prices following the introduction of the euro may have dampened enthusiasm for the project. We use Eurobarometer data from 2000-2007 to examine how rising prices and other economic factors have shaped support for the euro. We find that while inflation has had a negative impact on support for the euro it is offset by the positive effect of diffuse support for the European Union. This support, along with the impact of a strong currency, has led most (2/3’s) Europeans to be generally positive about the euro.
- Jeffrey A. Karp. 2009. "Candidate Effects and Spill-Over in Mixed Systems: Evidence From New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 28, No. 1. 41-50.
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Although mixed member proportional (MMP) systems offer several advantages they also have one potential problem that threatens the legitimacy of electoral outcomes. Some suggest that these systems suffer from a ’contamination effect’ where candidates have the potential to influence the party list vote which ultimately determines the partisan composition of parliament. This paper examines this theory in New Zealand which has conducted four elections under MMP. The analysis is based on district level data merged with individual level data. The findings suggest that although many voters do not have an opinion of candidates, those who do are likely to evaluate incumbents and party leaders more positively. While these factors can also have an influence on the party list vote, the overall effect is quite limited.
- Susan A. Banducci, Jeffrey A. Karp, Michael Thrasher, and Colin Rallings. 2008. "Ballot Photographs as Cues in Low Information Elections" in Political Psychology. Volume 29, No. 6. 903-917.
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In low information elections, voters are often faced with the task of choosing from a list of unknown candidates. By examining a set of low information elections where candidate photographs were displayed on the ballot, we test how first impressions of candidates can influence election outcomes. We find that attractive candidates are more likely to be attributed the qualities associated with successful politicians and these trait inferences, based on facial appearances, influence the outcomes of elections. We also find that these trait inferences are based on physical characteristics of the candidates, such as age, race and ethnicity, evident from a photograph. Therefore, first impressions can be important determinants of election outcomes, especially in low information elections.
- Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2008. "When Politics is Not Just a Man's Game: Women's Representation and Political Engagement." in Electoral Studies. Volume 27, No. 1. 105-115.
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Although women appear to be less interested and less engaged in politics than men, some evidence suggests that the presence of women as candidates and office holders can help to stimulate political engagement among women. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we investigate how the election of women in national legislatures influences their political engagement and attitudes about the political process across 35 countries. We find that sex differences in political engagement as well as political attitudes are apparent in a large number of countries. We find also that female representation is positively associated with attitudes about the political process; however, these effects, while weak, are seen among both men and women.
- Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2008. "Political Efficacy and Participation in Twenty Seven Democracies: How Electoral Systems Shape Political Behavior" in British Journal of Political Science. Volume 38, No. 2. 311-334.
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Advocates of proportional representation (PR) often cite its potential for increasing citizen involvement in politics as one of PR’s fundamental advantages over plurality or first past the post (FPP) systems. The assumption is that plurality electoral systems distort the translation of votes into seats discouraging and alienating small party supporters and other political minorities. In contrast, PR systems are believed to provide greater opportunities for representation which are assumed to instill greater efficacy and participation. We examine this theory linking institutions to electoral participation across a diverse set of countries using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). Using a multi-level approach we find evidence consistent with the expectations about the negative influence of disproportional systems on political minorities. Voters are also likely to have stronger partisan preferences in PR systems, which enhances political efficacy and increases voter participation. The effects of PR, however, are not all positive; broad coalitions, which are likely to be a feature of these systems, reduces political efficacy
- Jeffrey A. Karp, Susan A. Banducci and Shaun Bowler. 2008. "Getting Out the Vote: Party Mobilization in a Comparative Perspective" in British Journal of Political Science. Volume 38, No. 1. 91-112.
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Abstract: A long tradition within political science examines the impact of party canvassing on voter participation. Very
little of this work, however, is comparative in scope. This essay examines how system-level characteristics
shape the nature and impact of party canvassing and how voters respond to those efforts. Parties are found
to target the same types of potential voters everywhere – those who are likely to participate. However, one
important difference is that overall levels of party contact are far greater in candidate-based systems than in
proportional representation (PR) systems. Party mobilization, therefore, cannot explain the higher rates of
turnout observed in PR systems.
- Jeffrey A. Karp and Marshall W. Garland. 2007. "Ideological Ambiguity and Split Ticket Voting" in Political Research Quarterly. Volume 60, No. 4. 722-732.
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Recent research on congressional elections suggests that voters are more likely to split their votes in ideologically extreme districts. The authors suggest that in this type of context, uncertainty about candidate position rather than clarity explains the occurrence of ticket splitting. Using data from a rolling cross-section campaign survey where two incumbents competed in a predominately conservative district, the authors find that a substantial proportion of voters are likely to have difficulty identifying which congressional candidate was more conservative. Moreover, media exposure contributed to ambiguity over candidate position, which increases the likelihood of ticket splitting.
- Jeffrey A. Karp. 2007. "Reforming the Electoral College and Support for Proportional Outcomes" in Representation. Volume 43, No. 4. 239-250.
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In 2004 voters in Colorado decided whether to approve an initiative that would divide the state’s nine electoral votes on a proportional basis rather than retain the existing system that awards electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. Using data collected through a pre election survey, this paper examines how voters in Colorado who were exposed to a debate over proportionality reacted to the reform proposal. The results indicate that gender differences and political values such as ideology play more of a role than partisan self interest in structuring preferences about electoral institutions. The results have implications for how voters reason when confronted with a choice to reform institutions.
- Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2007. "Enraged or Engaged? Preferences for Direct Citizen Paricipation in Affluent Democracies" in Political Research Quarterly. Volume 60, No. 3. 351-362.
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Widespread approval of direct democracy has been attributed to politically engaged citizens who seek more opportunities to participate in politics. Others suggest that people prefer a limited role in politics, but cynicism with representation leads them to embrace direct democracy. The authors analyze opinion in sixteen affluent democracies to test these explanations. They find expectations of “more participation” were motivated by distrust of government and the
belief that a citizen had a duty to keep a watch on government. Distrust, however, was associated with less support for referendums in several nations. Support for referendums was greater among people who expect more opportunities to participate in public decisions and from people who were interested in politics, trusted government, and were satisfied with how democracy was working. Enthusiasm for direct democracy may reflect what people find lacking in representative democracy as much as it reflects interest in a more participatory version of democracy.
- Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2007. "Party Mobilization and Political Participation in New and Old Democracies" in Party Politics. Volume 13, No. 2. 217-234.
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Abstract: Political parties play a pivotal role by mobilizing citizens to participate in the political process. This may be particularly important in new democracies, where party attachments are weak and voter turnout is low. Using data drawn from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we examine citizen’s reported contact with political parties
during a national campaign across a range of democracies. We find that rates of reported contact are lower in new democracies and that on average citizens appear to be less engaged in the political process. Nevertheless, parties in new democracies appear to be more likely to target citizens than in old democracies. Their efforts lead them to be just as successful if not more so at stimulating political participation.
- Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Political Knowledge about Electoral Rules: Comparing Mixed Member Proportional Systems in Germany and New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 25, No. 4. 714-730.
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Mixed electoral systems are considered by some to be "the best of both worlds" because they combine single member district representation with proportional outcomes. Critics, however, maintain that such systems cause voter confusion leading some to cast misinformed votes. Survey data from Germany and New Zealand are used to investigate voter's political knowledge of the electoral system and their voting behavior. The findings suggest that knowledge about the electoral system is similar in New Zealand and in Germany. Although some may very well find the system complex, there is no evidence to suggest that a lack of knowledge about the electoral system influences voting behavior, undermining the claims made by skeptics who fear that misunderstanding threatens the legitimacy of electoral outcomes.
Acknowledgements: I would like to thank Edmund Lauf who contributed to an earlier paper on which this analysis is partly based. The paper was presented at the 2002 Meeting of the German Studies Association, San Diego, California. October 3-6.
- Todd Donovan and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Popular Support for Direct Democracy" in Party Politics. Volume 12, No. 5. 671-688.
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Abstract: The expanding use of direct democracy in many established democracies reflects a desire to provide citizens with more opportunities to be involved in the political process. These changes are assumed to be embraced by those who demand greater citizen involvement, though the underlining motivation remains unclear. One theory assumes that support is likely to come from citizens who have a deep interest in politics and are politically active. Another theory offers a contrasting view, claiming that those who find themselves on the periphery of politics and are largely disenchanted find such proposals attractive. We examine these theories drawing on public opinion surveys from six established democracies. We find that younger citizens and those who are more interested in the political process are more supportive of direct democracy while political disaffection has a less consistent impact.
- Jack Vowles, Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Forecasting and Evaluating the Consequences of Electoral Change in New Zealand" in Acta Politica. Volume 41, No. 3. 267-284.
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Abstract: The debate in New Zealand over whether to adopt a mixed member proportional (MMP) system was based on a number of predictions about the effects of electoral systems. After four elections under MMP we are now in a better position to evaluate the validity of the claims. We find that both proponents and opponents made claims that proved to be true but there were also unforeseen consequences that neither side could have predicted.
- Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Why Politicians Like Electoral Institutions: Self-interest, Values, or Ideology?" in Journal of Politics. Volume 68, No. 2. 434-446.
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Abstract: We examine whether MPs and candidates for parliament are motivated by electoral self-interest, values, ideology, or all of these when evaluating proposals for changing electoral institutions. Using survey data from four countries (Australia, Germany, the Netherlands and New Zealand), we find that candidates who won election are less supportive of proposals to change institutions, while those who lost elections are more supportive of institutional changes. Winning candidates share preferences for institutions that are independent of whether they are affiliated with a governing or opposition party. This self-interest effect is attenuated by ideology and attitudes about democracy. Pure self-interest, then, is an incomplete explanation for politicians' attitudes towards electoral institutions. We discuss how these findings are related to the static nature of political institutions.
- Jeffrey A. Karp and Shaun Bowler. 2006. "Broadening and deepening or broadening versus deepening: The question of enlargement and Europe's hesitant Europeans" in European Journal of Political Research. Volume 45, No. 3. 369-390.
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Abstract: The European Union sees the inclusion of many Eastern European states -- enlargement -- as a natural progression in the process of building an “ever closer union”. For the Commission in particular, the process of enlargement (broadening) is part of the process of integration and acts as a complement to the development of a stronger role for the EU and its institutions or deepening of integration. But as the first Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty showed, not all of European’s citizens see the two processes of enlargement and integration in the same light. This paper addresses two related questions: first, how are attitudes towards deepening and broadening related? Do European citizens see them as complementary or as contradictory? Second, and related to the first, what factors drive popular attitudes towards enlargement?
- Jeffrey A. Karp and David Brockington. 2005. "Social Desirability and Response Validity: A Comparative Analysis of Over-Reporting Voter Turnout in Five Countries" in Journal of Politics. Volume 67, No. 3. 825-840.
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Abstract: Theory and evidence suggests that the source of over-reporting of voter turnout in election surveys is largely due to a respondent’s incentive to offer a socially desirable response. We suggest that contextual influences may affect the socially desirable bias, leading to variance in the rate of over-reporting across countries. Specifically, we hypothesize that nonvoters will be more likely to over-report voting in elections that have high turnout. We rely on validated turnout data to measure over-reporting in five countries which vary a great deal in turnout: Britain, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We find that in national settings with higher levels of participation, the tendency to over-report turnout may be greater than in settings where low participation is the norm.
- Shaun Bowler and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Politicians, Scandals and Trust in Government" in Political Behavior. Volume 26, No. 3. 271-288.
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Abstract: In this paper we examine the role that political scandals play in eroding regard for government and political institutions in general. We know that scandals can lower regard for individual politicians and government leaders. Yet, less is known about how scandal influences attitudes toward institutions and the political process. It has been widely assumed that such attitudes are influenced by factors that lie largely beyond the control of individual politicians. Using data from the U.S. and the U.K. we show that scandals involving legislators can have a negative influence on their constituent's attitudes toward institutions and the political process. One consequence of this finding is that, instead of looking for scapegoats in Hollywood or among the failings of voters themselves, politicians should first get their own House in order.
- Todd Donovan, Shaun Bowler, Robert Hanneman and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Social Groups, Sport and Political Engagement in New Zealand" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 39, No. 2. 405-419.
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Abstract: Many prominent social theorists contend that memberships in voluntary associations make major contributions to making citizens more engaged with democracy. Although substantial attention has been directed at the potential role of sports groups, previous studies using survey data have not found membership in sports groups to be associated with political activity. New Zealand presents an important context for testing this theory, given its high levels of public participation in sports groups. We find that membership in sports and other social groups is associated with higher levels of political engagement. We discuss how these findings advance our understanding of the role that specific group memberships may have in democratic societies.
- Susan A. Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Minority Representation, Empowerment, and Participation" in Journal of Politics Volume 66, No. 2. 534-556.
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Abstract: We examine how the context of representation affects citizens’ attitudes about their representatives and government and their likelihood of voting. According to the minority empowerment thesis, minority representation strengthens representational links, fosters more positive attitudes toward government and encourages political participation among minorities. We examine this from a cross-national perspective, making use of rare survey data that sampled minorities in the United States and New Zealand. Both countries incorporate structures into their electoral systems that make it possible for minority groups to elect constituency representatives of their choice. We find that in both countries, descriptive representation matters. In the United States, blacks who have black representatives are more likely to have knowledge about their representative, and are more likely to contact and approve of their representative. Similarly, we find that in New Zealand the ethnicity of the representative makes a difference. Where Maori hold constituency seats, Maori citizens are more likely to see government as responsive and are more likely to vote than Maori outside these constituencies. Our results suggest that rules leading to greater descriptive representation of minorities have effects that transcend standard assessments of a tradeoff between substantive and descriptive representation. These findings have broad implications for debates about methods designed to enhance minority representation.
- Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2003. "How Elections Change the Way Citizens View the Political System: Campaigns, Media Effects, and Electoral Outcomes in Comparative Perspective" in British Journal of Political Science. Volume 33, No. 3. 443-467.
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Abstract: Attitudes toward the political system have often been assumed to be stable attributes that are not easily influenced by short term forces. In this paper we examine the extent to which attention to media coverage, campaign activity, and electoral outcomes can mobilize political support in the context of an election campaign. Using pre and post-election survey panels from the United States, Britain and New Zealand, we find significant changes on most indicators of political support. In particular, election winners, regardless of the political system, are happier than losers. Aside from electoral outcomes, attention to the media, particularly serious news coverage, can enhance attitudes toward the political system. The results have implications for the debate over the meaning of political support.
- Susan A. Banducci, Jeffrey A. Karp, and Peter H. Loedel. 2003. "The Euro, Economic Interests and Multi-level Governance: Examining Support for the Common Currency" in European Journal of Political Research. Volume 42, No. 5. 685-703.
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Abstract: Support for a common currency and the European Monetary Union signifies that European citizens are willing to transfer power from the nation-state to the European Union. Given the symbolic importance of national currencies, this willingness to give up sovereignty over currency has important implications for the further integration and development of the EU. Drawing on a multi-level governance perspective of European integration, we examine how economic factors such as the value of the national currency and individual factors such as diffuse support for the EU and education condition support for the euro. We hypothesize that citizens will be less likely to support a common currency when they lack diffuse support for the EU, when their own national currency is strong or when their country's domestic agenda is squeezed by austerity measures. Using pooled Euro-barometer data from 1992 to 2000, we find support for these hypotheses indicating that citizens take into account domestic economic performance when evaluating EU institutions but individual attitudes toward the EU also play a role in support for the euro.
- Jeffrey A. Karp, Susan A. Banducci, and Shaun Bowler. 2003. "To Know it is to Love it? Satisfaction with Democracy in the European Union" in Comparative Political Studies. Volume 36, No 2. 271-292.
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Abstract: Recent reforms have been designed to enhance the power of the European Parliament to counter criticisms of a "democratic deficit" in the European Union (EU). This paper examines how citizens now view these institutions and whether such evaluations influence their satisfaction with the way democracy works in the EU. Previous research has maintained that evaluations of the quality of democracy are difficult to assess because opinions about the EU largely reflect opinions about national institutions. Our results indicate that this is not necessarily the case, particularly among those who are politically aware. Those with high levels of political knowledge rely more heavily on institutional evaluations when assessing democracy in the EU. We also find evidence that evaluations of democratic performance in the EU are motivated by the economic benefits and costs associated with membership. The implications for the "democratic deficit" and the satisfaction with democracy measure are discussed.
- Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2002. "When Might Institutions Change? Elite Support for Direct Democracy in Three Nations" in Political Research Quarterly . Volume 55, No 4. 731-754.
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Abstract: Citizen initiated referenda (CIRs) allow groups and individuals outside a legislature to draft policies that, if approved in a popular vote, may be binding on government. Some observe that such practices are fundamentally inconsistent with representative democracy, with parties as organization, and with responsible government in particular. Given the potentially antagonistic relationship between legislative institutions and CIRs, and the fact that CIRs might alter how legislatures operate, support for CIRs among legislators would appear somewhat paradoxical. Using survey data from three nations we examine the nature of support among legislators and aspiring legislators as a way of testing hypotheses about elite motivations for changing political institutions. Our results suggest that greater resistance to CIRs is found among incumbents generally, the governing party in particular, and among respondents who place themselves at the ends of the ideological spectrum.
- Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2002. "Issues and Party Competition under Alternative Electoral Systems" in Party Politics. Volume 8, No 1. 123-141.
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Abstract: Proximity and directional spatial models yield different predictions for mass-elite linkages under alternative electoral rules. Whereas the proximity or Downsian model predicts that parties are likely to adopt positions that are closer to their voters, the alternative directional model predicts parties will adopt more extreme positions in order to generate political support among an electorate that has diffuse policy interests (Rabinowitz and Macdonald 1989; Macdonald, Listhaug and Rabinowitz 1991; Rabinowitz, Macdonald and Listhaug 1991). Theoretical arguments lead us to expect that the directional model is most applicable in plurality systems, while the proximity model is best for describing party and voter behavior in multi-party systems. While others have examined these models from a cross national perspective, we employ an alternative research design using candidate and mass opinion data from New Zealand where voters have experienced a change in the electoral system.
- Jeffrey A. Karp, Jack Vowles, Susan A. Banducci, and Todd Donovan. 2002. "Strategic Voting, Party Activity, and Candidate Effects: Testing Explanations for Split Voting in New Zealand's New Mixed System" in Electoral Studies. Volume 21, No 1. 1-22.
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Abstract: Recent research on voting in Germany's mixed electoral system suggests that split voting has more to do with voter confusion than sophistication, although this remains a matter of debate. We examine this question in the context of New Zealand's new mixed system, which is modeled after Germany's. We focus on alternative explanations for split voting. One is derived from theories of strategic voting, which hypothesises that voters will split their votes when their preferred party's candidate is not viable in single member district (SMD) contests. We also consider the influence of party attachments and candidate preference. We examine these explanations using both aggregate and individual level data. The assumption that split voting in mixed systems is largely due to confusion is not supported in New Zealand as split voters cast votes in predictable patterns. In particular, we find that strategic defections are more likely to occur when the preferred candidate is not viable. Those with higher levels of political knowledge are more likely to defect from nonviable candidates. Partisan attachments and candidate effects also help to explain split voting.
- Jeffrey A. Karp and Shaun Bowler. 2001. "Coalition Politics and Satisfaction with Democracy: Explaining New Zealand's Reaction to Proportional Representation" in European Journal of Political Research. Volume 40, No 1. 57-79.
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Abstract: Following approval of a referendum in 1993, New Zealand replaced its first-past-the-post electoral system with proportional representation (PR). Although support for PR was initially high, less than a third expressed support for the system a year and a half after holding the first election held under PR. We examine two explanations for this decline. One theory assumes that dissatisfaction with the new system is the result of a growing alienation with politics, exacerbated by an unpopular coalition government that voters neither expected nor desired. Another theory assumes that evaluations of the new system are mediated by a preference for coalition or single party government. Our results indicate that a preference for single party government, guided primarily by partisan self-interest, has the largest impact. Nevertheless, negative evaluations of the performance of the coalition government helped contribute to a loss in support for PR suggesting that government performance can affect citizen's evaluation of political institutions, particularly when systems undergo radical change.
- Jeffrey A Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2001. "Absentee Voting, Participation, and Mobilization" in American Politics Research. Volume 29, No 2. 183-195.
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Liberal absentee laws are designed to make voting easier which should stimulate turnout. Using data from the National Election Studies, we test the hypothesis that persons who choose to vote early are already highly motivated to participate in the political process. We find support for this hypothesis, which raises questions about the extent to which liberal absentee laws can expand the electorate. Furthermore, contrary to past research, we see the Republican advantage in absentee voting as a result of self-selection rather than party mobilization.
- Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A Karp. 2000. "Gender, Leadership and Choice in Multiparty Systems" in Political Research Quarterly. Volume 53, No 4. 815-848.
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Abstract: While a significant amount of research seeks to explain the comparative number of women in national legislatures, there is little research that examines the effects of women's leadership of political parties on voting behaviour. This paper brings together research on leadership effects in parliamentary elections and female candidate effects in legislative races. Ideological, structural, and situational differences between men and women have been used to explain gender gaps in voting. We explore an alternative explanation – gender identity. When women candidates are present, the gender identity hypothesis assumes that women voters are more likely to choose women candidates because of gender. While this hypothesis has been tested in legislative races, it has not been applied to party leaders in parliamentary elections. We test the gender identity hypothesis in Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Britain. We find that leadership evaluations affect vote choice across all countries but the effects of gender and the combined effects of gender and leadership differ across countries.
- Jeffrey A Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2000. "Going Postal: How All Mail Elections Influence Turnout" in Political Behavior . Volume 22, No 3. 223-239.
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Abstract: We examine the question of whether or not reducing the costs of voting by conducting elections entirely through the mail rather than at the traditional polling place increases participation. Using election data from Oregon, we examine whether or not elections conducted through the mail increase turnout in both local and statewide elections. We also examine how postal voting may alter the composition of the electorate using precinct level data merged with census data. We find that, while all mail elections tend to produce higher turnout, the most significant increases occur in low stimulus elections, such as local elections or primaries where turnout is usually low. The increase in turnout, however, is not uniform across demographic groups. Voting only by mail is likely to increase turnout among those who are already predisposed to vote such as those with higher socio-economic status. Like other administrative reforms designed to make voting easier, postal voting has the potential to increase turnout. However, the expanded pool of voters will be limited most likely to those already inclined to vote but find it inconvenient to go to the polling place. This conclusion is consistent with the growing body of research that suggests that relaxing administrative requirements is not likely to be the panacea for low turnout among the disenfranchised.
- Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp. 1999. "Perceptions of Fairness and Support for Proportional Representation" in Political Behavior. Volume 21, No 3. 217-238.
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Abstract: This article explores the causes and consequences of evaluations of the political system and support for electoral system change. In 1993 New Zealand voters adopted a referendum which fundamentally changed the way representatives are elected moving from a plurality to a proportional (PR) electoral system. We explore the role of cynicism about the political system in adopting PR and how electoral change may shape evaluations of the political system. We expect that political minorities and those dissatisfied with the current performance of government are more likely to be cynical about the fairness of the political process and that these evaluations are related to support for PR. In turn, supporters of the referendum should judge the political system more favorably once the reform is implemented. Using panel data from the 1993 and 1996 New Zealand Election Studies, we find that support for PR is based on evaluations of the government performance as well as more general evaluations of the fairness of the political system. Those who supported PR and are politically aware are also more likely to have an increase in favorable evaluations of the political system.
- Susan Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey Karp. 1999. "Proportional Representation and Attitudes About Politics: Results from New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 18, No 4. 533-555.
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Abstract: PR systems are often credited with producing more equitable outcomes between political parties and encouraging wider social group representation than majoritarian systems. Theory suggests this should instill greater trust, efficacy, and faith in the political system. We assume that citizens disadvantaged by majoritarian rules (political minorities) would have a relatively greater shift toward positive attitudes about democracy following a transition from a majoritarian system to proportional representation. We employ panel data from the 1993-1996 New Zealand Election Study (NZES) to test hypotheses about the effects of electoral system change on attitudes about governmental responsiveness, trust in government, and political efficacy. We find that there was a general shift in mass opinion toward more positive attitudes on some measures of efficacy and responsiveness. However, although political minorities display a greater shift toward feelings of efficacy than other voters, they did not come to see government as more responsive or more worthy of trust as compared to other voters.
- Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci. 1999. "The Impact of Proportional Representation on Turnout: Evidence from New Zealand" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 34, No 3. 363-377.
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Abstract: Theories of voter turnout assume that institutional arrangements dramatically alter incentives for participation. Countries with proportional representation (PR) are assumed to increase the incentives to participate because they reduce the proportion of votes that are wasted giving voters a stronger incentive to participate and parties a stronger incentive to mobilise voters. This paper departs from previous cross-national studies by employing individual level data during a transition between electoral systems in one country. We use survey data collected before and after electoral reform in New Zealand to examine patterns of participation among political minorities. As a direct test of individual change, the analysis is supplemented with survey data from the last election held under first past the post (FPP) merged with validated participation data from the following election held under PR. We find that the adoption of PR in New Zealand has succeeded initially in fostering more positive attitudes about the efficacy of voting. In New Zealand's first election held under proportional representation, voters who are on the extreme left were significantly more likely to participate than previously leading to an overall increase in turnout.
- Jeffrey A. Karp. 1995. "Explaining Public Support for Legislative Term Limits" in Public Opinion Quarterly. Volume 59, No 3. 373-91.
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Abstract: A number of theories have been offered to explain popular support for term limits and their passage in states across the country. Using survey data from the 1992 American Election Study and several other statewide surveys, this article examines the following explanations for term limits support: dissatisfaction with Congress and state legislators, cynicism, self-interest, and ideology. An Analysis of these data suggest that term limits support is not influenced by a dissatisfaction with legislatures or particular incumbents or by a specific ideology. Instead, support for term limits is related to cynicism and, to some extent, self-interest.
- Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 1994. "The Electoral Consequences of Scandal and Reapportionment in the 1992 House Elections" in American Politics Quarterly. Volume 22, No 1. 3-26.
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Abstract: The authors examine the electoral effects of political scandal and redistricting, two conventional wisdom explanations for 1992's higher than usual House turnover. They use the strategic politician theory as a basis for their analysis to examine retirements, primary outcomes, and general election outcomes. The theory assumes that politicians (both incumbents and challengers) behave strategically and will run or not run based on the prevailing political climate. The authors find support for the theory with regard to retirements; embattled incumbents are more likely to retire. Their analysis of the primary and general election outcomes, however, finds mixed support for the theory. Nevertheless, the check scandal and redistricting had a direct impact on the incumbent's vote margin, making the elections more competitive
- Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2009. "Electoral Systems, Efficacy, and Voter Turnout" in The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Hans-Dieter Klingemann, (ed.). Oxford University Press. 109-136.
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Abstract: One of the least disputed conclusions to emanate from the research on electoral systems and turnout is that countries with proportional representation (PR) have higher voter turnout. Some estimate that PR systems have a turnout advantage as high as 12 percent (Franklin 1996). There
is, however, disagreement over the mechanisms by which PR produces higher turnout. Some believe that PR helps to foster higher turnout by
increasing a citizen’s perception that his or her votematters in an election. Because plurality elections give all the spoils to the single candidate who
receives the most votes, the potential decisiveness of a vote for a minor party or noncompetitive candidate is minimized. On the other hand,
in PR systems, where the proportion of votes gained by a party is more closely related to the share of seats that a party receives, all votes could
potentially be decisive in determining the number of seats a party gains in parliament. Past research therefore, has assumed that the disproportionality
between seats and votes in plurality systems instills in voters a sense that their vote is wasted if not cast for a viable candidate. This
lack of efficacy contributes to comparatively lower rates of participation in plurality systems than in PR systems.
- Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2008. "Mobilizing Political Engagement and Participation in Diverse Societies: The Impact of Institutional Arrangements" in Designing Democratic Government: Making Institutions Work. Margaret Levi, James Johnson, Jack Knight, and Susan Stokes, eds. Russell Sage Foundation. 62-88.
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Abstract: The process of democratization in an increasing number of diverse societies has
focused attention on how best to devise electoral systems (as well as other institutions) in order to manage ethnic conflict. Institutional arrangements that allow for power-sharing between groups or arrangements that encourage political actors to appeal to those outside their groups are thought to increase legitimacy and reduce (or channel) conflict. We investigate which electoral and institutional arrangements influence political support and engagement across 33 ethnically diverse countries. Contrary to what we might expect
from consociational accounts, we find that single member plurality electoral systems tend
to reduce differences between ethnic minorities and non-minorities in terms of political
engagement. When access to political power is limited, there is some evidence that
differences are exaggerated while special accommodation tend to increase differences in
participation but minimize difference in government support. We discuss these findings
in light of other research on institutional arrangements and political engagement of ethnic groups.
- Susan A. Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2005. "Effects of Minority Representation on Political Attitudes and Participation" in Diversity in Democracy: Minority Representation in the United States. Gary M. Segura and Shaun Bowler, eds. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press. 193-215.
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First paragraph: Over the past two decades, race has been said to matter less as a factor explaining US voter turnout (Flanigan and Zingale 1998:43; Abramson et al. 1998:73). Some studies find that when numerous individual-level factors are considered, African Americans are no less likely to vote than whites (Zipp 1985), or are more likely to vote, other things being equal (Leighley and Nagler 1992). In particular, the turnout gap between whites and African Americans becomes substantially muted when education is accounted for (Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980).
- Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci. 2004. "Political Parties and Party Mobilisation" in Voters' Veto: The 2002 Election in New Zealand and the Consolidation of Minority Government 104-116.
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Last paragraph: These findings lead us to conclude that party mobilisation is not responsible for the higher turnout observed in PR systems. Such a pattern presents a puzzle for our understanding of turnout since, plainly, the higher levels of turnout under PR cannot be associated with higher levels of party campaigning under PR. Indeed, turnout would be even lower in FPP systems if it were not for party mobilisation. One possible explanation for this result is that parties and candidates must work harder to mobilize voters when turnout is low. In New Zealand, overall turnout has been declining since 1984 except for an increase in 1993 at the time of the MMP referendum and during the first election held under MMP in 1996 (see chapter 2. The shift to PR in New Zealand may have had the effect of raising turnout temporarily, but has not reversed the earlier trend. Turnout may still be higher than it would have been had New Zealand retained first past the post. The decrease in turnout is consistent with the decline in party mobilisation. While there are other factors that may explain the decline (see Vowles 2002), it is evident that the decline in party activity is partly responsible. As we have seen, parties can and do stimulate turnout. The question remains how to provide greater incentives for parties to reach out to the voters.
- Raymond Miller and Jeffrey Karp. 2004. "A Vote for Coalition Government" in Voters' Veto: The 2002 Election in New Zealand and the Consolidation of Minority Government 134-149.
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First paragraph: At the 2002 election the voters were presented with two governing alternatives, neither of which included National. The steady stream of speculation that filled the media vacuum created by the absence of other campaign issues had one common theme: What kind of Labour government? Having for several months enjoyed support averaging more than 50 per cent, Labour was initially well placed to win a majority of seats, although with an undertaking from the prime minister that there would be a place at the cabinet table for the former Alliance leader, Jim Anderton. Given the extent of coalition failure under MMP, beginning with the collapse of the National-New Zealand First government in 1998, followed by the damaging split within the Alliance between 2001 and 2002, the latter providing the prime minister with justification for an early election, Labour appeared to be well placed to exploit any opposition to coalition government. During the course of the campaign, support for the minor parties increased sharply, if haphazardly, as voters, having been deprived of the campaign cues provided in 1999, when Labour reached a pre-election coalition understanding with the Alliance, mulled over the relative merits of the single party and coalition alternatives.
- Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp. 2004. "New Zealand in a Comparative Context" in Voters' Veto: The 2002 Election in New Zealand and the Consolidation of Minority Government 150-166.
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Conclusion
The 2002 election in New Zealand was a singular event in place and time, and may be assessed as such. But elections and liberal democracies, being global phenomena, makes it also possible to view the New Zealand experience from a comparative perspective. As a result, we have been able to cast a different light on trends across several important political dimensions. For example, while, there has been a decline in class voting in New Zealand as in other democracies, we have also seen that the relationship between socio-economic factors and vote choice varies across countries, and from this comparative perspective was relatively strong in New Zealand in 2002.
We have shown that the adoption of MMP in New Zealand parallels the growing endorsement of mixed electoral systems around the globe. In this respect, New Zealand also fits in with evidence that electoral institutions can have some influence on voter participation and attitudes toward the democratic process. Notwithstanding the adoption of proportional representation, the decline in turnout in New Zealand is largely consistent with trends in turnout in other post-industrial societies. However, the decline in turnout is not secular, turnout having remained stable or increased in some countries.
The evidence presented in this chapter suggests that the type of electoral system influences electoral participation, and to some extent also, support for large or small parties. Although small party supporters have lower levels of satisfaction than large party supporters, the differences between them are reduced in PR systems. This is consistent with expectations that proportional systems help to facilitate more positive political attitudes. It also complements recent evidence from New Zealand, where political minorities experienced a greater shift in efficacy than other voters following the adoption of proportional representation (Banducci, Donovan, and Karp 1999).
Satisfaction with democracy is fairly high in New Zealand, when compared with other countries for which there are similar data. Overall, however, satisfaction with democracy seems to be more highly correlated with economic performance than with evaluations of politicians. In other words, suggestions of a crisis in legitimacy in liberal democracies may be overstated. Rather than indicating the failure of modern democracy, declining expressions of trust and increasing levels of cynicism may be more closely linked with shifts in the economy than with fundamental shortcomings of representative government.
- Jeffrey A. Karp, Shaun Bowler and Susan A. Banducci. 2003. "Electoral Systems, Party Mobilization, and Turnout: Evidence from the European Parliamentary Elections" in British Elections and Parties Review, Volume 13. Frank Cass Publishers. 210-228.
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Abstract: Much of the comparative literature on turnout suggests that party mobilization efforts can explain the turnout advantage among electoral systems that use proportional representation (PR). In this paper we examine this question in the context of the 1999 European Parliamentary elections. Using survey data from a range for European countries, we show that party campaign activity is not the mechanism that produces the higher levels of turnout found in PR systems. If anything, citizens are more likely to be mobilized under candidate based systems rather than closed list PR. There are, moreover, predictable differences in campaign activity across different electoral systems.
- Jeffrey Karp. 2002. "Members of Parliament and Representation" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 130-146.
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Democratic politics everywhere, regardless of the role of referendums (see Chapter 10), are founded on representation. MPs elected to Parliament may bring their personal attributes with them, but they are there to speak not for themselves but as the representatives of various wider interests, some clear-cut, others shifting or informal. Most obviously, they represent their respective parties. The equally long tradition of geographical representation is present in the country’s 61 General electorates, while six separate Maori electorates in
1999 ensured the representation of New Zealand’s indigenous population. The process of group-interest representation is generally thought to be strengthened when in the hands of an MP who is visibly of that group.
- Jeffrey Karp and Peter Aimer. 2002. "Direct Democracy on Trial: The Citizens-Initiated Referendums" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 146-159.
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First paragraph: When New Zealanders went to the polling booths on election day in 1999, some were surprised to be issued with a bundle of papers. As well as their general election ballots, voters also faced two citizens-initiated referendums (CIRs). Citizens’ initiatives were a relatively recent addition to the country’s democratic practices. The legislation enabling such initiatives was passed late in 1993, only a few weeks before the referendum approving MMP. The timing was not entirely fortuitous. Both CIR and MMP were nurtured by the same widespread mood of disillusion, to which National politicians were tactically, and in many cases reluctantly, responding (Jackson and McRobie 1998, 86–92). Since 1993, however, only one initiative had proceeded to a referendum vote. In 1999, therefore, citizens-initiated referendums, like MMP, were on trial.
- Jack Vowles, Jeffrey Karp, Susan Banducci, and Peter Aimer. 2002. "Public Opinion, Public Knowledge, and the Electoral System" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 160-174.
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First paragraph: Support for MMP between 1990 and 1993 was fuelled most by disillusion with the status quo. The vision of an alternative style of politics that might be expected to result from the shift to proportional representation, multi-party politics and coalition governments was less clear. For while the foundations of attitudes to FPP were based on experience, those for MMP were necessarily abstract and hypothetical. That changed after the first MMP election in 1996. From then on public opinion both for and against the new system would be shaped by experience. MMP, New Zealand’s version of proportional representation, was on trial.
- Jack Vowles, Jeffrey Karp, Susan Banducci, Peter Aimer, and Raymond Miller. 2002. "Reviewing MMP" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 175-191.
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First paragraph: In August 2001 a parliamentary committee set up to review MMP released its report, somewhat oddly named as ‘an inquiry into a review’. Made up of representatives from all parties represented in Parliament except New Zealand First, which had declined membership, the committee was unable to agree on any action. The public reaction, such as it was, was critical. In particular, those wishing to see the size of Parliament reduced and an immediate referendum on MMP accused the members of the committee opposing those changes of ‘arrogance’.
- Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. 1998. "Expectations of Change" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 1-11.
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Unbroken transitions between substantially different electoral systems are rare
events. An unbroken transition takes place when there is an interval of
relatively ‘normal politics’ between two democratic elections under different
rules. It therefore excludes changes following disruptions such as war, dictatorship,
the establishment of a new state, or the reappearance of an old one.
There were only 14 such transitions in Europe between 1885 and 1985, with
five concentrated in one country, France (Bartolini & Mair 1990, 154–5).
- Susan Banducci, Jeffrey Karp, and Jack Vowles. 1998. "Vote Splitting Under MMP" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 101-119
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- Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp. 1998. "Representation Under a Proportional System" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 135-152
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- Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci. 1998. "Voter Satisfaction After Electoral System Change" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 153-170
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- Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. 1998. "Voter Rationality and the Advent of MMP" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 192-211
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- Jeffrey A. Karp. 1998. "The Influence of Elite Endorsements in Initiative Campaigns" in Citizens as Legislators. Edited by Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Caroline Tolbert. Ohio University Press. 149-165.
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First Paragragh: In November of 1991, voters in Washington State rejected an initiative that would have placed limits on the number of terms elected officials could serve. The term limits inititive would have forced the state's entire congressional delegation, including Speaker of the House Tom Foley, to leave office after serving just one more term in office. The 1991 term limits defeat in Washington State was unique and unexpected. Just one year before, the term limits movement appared to have strong momentum when voters approved term limits initiatives in California, Colorado, and Oklahoma. Initially the Washington measure enjoyed widespread support; however, after an expensive and hotly contested campaign, the measure failed with 46% of the vote. A year after the defeat, voters in Washington and 13 other states passed similar term limits measures. Most of these passed easily, with little or no opposition. By the end of 1995, voters in more than 20 states approved ballot measures limiting the number of terms of either or both state legislators and members of Congress.